FORD will shut its Geelong and Broadmeadows factories in 2016 when tough new emissions standards make the current Falcon and Territory models redundant, a leading car industry figure says.
More than 3000 jobs would be lost directly at Ford, while that figure would jump significantly when the impact spread to small to medium-sized parts suppliers.
PPB Advisory partner Stephen Longley, a receiver for collapsed automotive supplier companies, said that it was only "logical" that Ford would stop manufacturing cars within Australia.
"Ford will still be here selling cars but it will not be manufacturing cars in Australia," he said. "I don't expect them to be here after 2016 when the Euro 5 standards kick in."
The Ford Falcon could be replaced with the US-made Taurus and while the Territory would be swapped for another SUV in Ford's range, he added.
The warning comes after Ford announced this month it was sacking 440 people as a 24 per cent slump in Falcon sales hit the company's bottom line.
And key Ford supplier CMI Industrial slashed 119 jobs last week, when it announced it was closing its Campbellfield and West Footscray factories.
Mr Longley said Ford would have to invest millions to upgrade its factories to meet the new emissions standards, which come into force on November 1, 2016.
He said that smaller parts suppliers needed to review their business models now to find out if they will survive Ford's inevitable closure.
"Unless they diversify this could be the final nail in the coffin for them," Mr Longley said.
"They might be asking are we going to keep throwing good money after bad?"
Mr Longley said that Holden and Toyota would be reviewing their supplier relationships in case Ford went under.