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Tomas' winds intensify

Friday, March 12, 2010

Update: 11:08PM TROPICAL Cyclone Tomas continues to move at a steady six knots and is a little closer to the Fiji Group.

 At around 7pm Tomas was about 500km north-lynorteast of Suva with winds of 30-35knots at the centre.

It is currently moving west but is expected to take a more southwesterly track over the next six hours.

Maximum winds should increase to around 50 knots over the 12-hour period to 7am Saturday.

Meanwhile, the depression to the west of he group continues to pose no immediate danger to Fiji.

Here is the latest report from the Nadi Weather Forecasting Centre:

 

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A7 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI

Mar 12/0825 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS 990 HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2S 176.5W AT

120600 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS/GOES EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH

ANIMATION. DEPRESSION MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO

GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWEST.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE

CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS INCREASING TO 50 KNOTS IN THE NEXT

12 HOURS. EXPECTED WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150NM OF CENTRE. ORGANISATION STEADILY IMPROVING. PRIMARY BANDS CONSOLIDATING AND

WRAPPING TIGHTLY AROUND LLCC. THE SYSTEM LIES OVER A WEAKLY SHEARED

AND DIFFLUENT ENVIROMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO EAST AND NORTH AND

DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE. SST 30C. SYSTEM STEERED WEST-SOUTHWEST BY

NORTHEAST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.7 WRAP ON

LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT=3.0. MET AND PT AGREE, THUS

T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON SOUTHWEST TRACK AND

INTENSIFICATION.FORECASTS :

AT 12 HRS VALID AT 121800UTC 11.7S 177.3W MOV WSW AT 06 KT WITH 50 KT

CLOSE TO CENTRE.AT 24 HRS VALID AT 130600 UTC 12.6S 178.1W MOV SW AT 06 KT WITH 60 KT

CLOSE TO CENTRE.OUTLOOK :

AT 36 HRS VALID AT 131800 UTC 13.8S 178.8W MOV SW AT 07 KT WITH 65 KT

CLOSE TO CENTRE.AT 48 HRS VALID AT 140600 UTC 15.1S 179.3W MOV SSW AT 07 KT WITH 75

KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TOMAS WILL BE ISSUED AT

121430 UTC OR EARLIER.

 

 

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