What is the role of the Fiji Meteorological Service on climate change in Fiji?
Along with a number of other responsibilities, FMS has been assigned the task of monitoring Fiji's climate and advising both Government and the public of any changes in climate due to global warming and other factors.
FMS collects, summarises and archives, in both hardcopy and electronic format meteorological data from some 70 rainfall and 50 climate stations across Fiji.
While most of these stations began after 1945, a number began, for example, FSC mills in the late 1800s.
This data along with data from a variety of international sources are used for monthly and seasonal climate monitoring and climate change analyses.
What does Fiji's records show about climate trends?
The 2007 Annual Weather Summary (available at http://www.met.gov.fj>) reports that Fiji's annual mean air temperature for 2007 was 26.5║C or 0.9║C above the 1971-2000 average. 2007 was the warmest year in the 50 years and most likely the warmest in the past 100 years.
The previous record was 26.2║C set in 1988 and equalled in 1996, 1998, 2000 and 2001.
An increasing trend in annual mean air temperature is very apparent especially since the 1980s.
The trend in total annual rainfall in the past 50 to 100 years is slightly positive or negative depending on your location in Fiji and the length of record.
More apparent are the year to year anomalies in annual rainfall due to droughts associated with El Ni±o events e.g. in 1966, '69, '83, '87, '98, '03 and 'Wet Periods' associated with La Ni±a events e.g. in 1974-'76, '89, '96, '99-'00, '07.
At Lautoka for example, total annual rainfall was less than 55% of normal in 1969 and 1987 and more than 150% of normal in 1974 and 2000.
On average Fiji is affected by 1-2 tropical cyclones a season. Records from the 1969/70 show a decreasing trend in the number of tropical cyclones directly affecting Fiji.
A similar trend is shown for the South Pacific. There is also a slight decrease in the number of tropical cyclones passing over Fiji, which have attained hurricane intensity.
This is in contrast to the North Atlantic region, where an increase in intense tropical cyclone activity has been recorded since 1970.
Sea level records for Fiji are relatively short. At the Lautoka Wharf, the rate of sea level rise from 1992 to 1998 is +3.2 millimetres per year.
Global average sea level has risen since 1961 at an average rate of 1.8 millimetres per year and since 1993 at 3.1 millimetres per year.
Rising sea level is consistent with global warming.
Whether the faster rate for 1993 is a short term or an increase in the longer term is unclear to scientists at this stage.
How hot will Fiji get and in how many years?
This depends on several factors the main one being how soon and how much humans reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Best estimate global air temperature projections to 2100 range from +0.6║C to +4.0║C.
Assuming humans do little to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, models predict Fiji's annual mean air temperatures to increase between 1.5 and 2.5║C by 2100.
Will tropical cyclone numbers and strength continue to decrease in the coming years?
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in their 2007 Fourth Assessment Report project a likely increase in tropical cyclone intensity. Future numbers of tropical cyclones especially in the South Pacific are uncertain at this stage.
What does this mean and what risks come with this rate of temperature rise? What danger does Fiji face?
Higher air temperatures mean greater numbers of very hot days and nights especially in the summer months of November to April.
Amongst other things, this will cause greater electricity demand for cooling.
Sea levels will continue to rise and the rate of rise will likely increase.
Global sea level projections to 2100 range between 0.18 to 0.59 metres.
Higher sea levels will mean increased erosion and land loss in Fiji's coastal regions.
Vital coastal infrastructure, settlements and facilities will be threatened.
Deterioration in coastal conditions, for example through erosion of beaches and coral bleaching is expected to affect local resources.
Towns in Fiji that are close to the coast are more likely to be affected by river flooding due to higher sea levels retarding river outflow during flooding events.
There are many other implications.
Will Fiji's rainfall patterns change?
This is unclear at the moment for two reasons. The first being almost half the global rainfall models predict a wetter future and the other half a drier future.
For the South Pacific region the IPCC projects a -14 to 14.6% change in annual rainfall by the year 2100.
The second reason is the results from climate models are split 50:50 on whether El Ni±o events will increase in frequency and intensity in the future.
Considering all the uncertainty with rainfall projections, it would be wise when planning for the future to consider both negative and positive rainfall projections.
Is it too late?
If you mean to keep air temperature and sea level rise to current levels, the answer is 'Yes'.
To quote directly from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, "Human induced warming and sea level rise would continue for centuries due to the time scales associated with climate processes and feedback, even if greenhouse gas emissions were to be stabilised".
Greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced to prevent further acceleration of air temperature and sea level rise.
What should be our immediate focus in Fiji?
Develop a greater understanding of the projected impacts and prepare for these changes.
It is important that greater emphasis be placed on meteorological and environmental monitoring, vulnerability assessments be undertaken and adaptation options e.g restricting development in threatened coastal and floodplain areas, put in place.
With an increasing population and projected greater impacts from natural disasters, it is important the Fiji public receive as much warning in advance as possible.
